I do believe your instincts are correct.
When EoG dropped, I started with stage 2, ran it for 2 months, and NOTHING happened. My inner voice kept telling me that it “didn’t understand it.” Meaning that it didn’t understand how to work with ST2.
So I licked my wounds for a month, then started easing into EoG ST1. It’s been good on EoG ST1. Sometimes slow, but it’s working.